Disaster in Burma

Caroline's distinction that the disaster in Burma now is not a force of nature but a force of politics is important.

By limiting foreign aid, the military junta has exacerbated the crisis. UN officials now estimate that 100,000 people have died since the cyclone swept through Burma two weeks ago. Some say the R2P doctrine would legitimate an intervention in Burma to sidestep the likely veto by China or Russia in the UN Security Council. There are good reasons for and against this idea.

The R2P doctrine should be applied strictly to ensure it is not rendered meaningless by world leaders seeking to justify less than benign military interventions. Clearly, the devastating situation has resulted in "mass atrocities" as a result of the military junta's inaction in responding to the needs of the people. Yet, even a purely humanitarian intervention (air drops, increased foreign aid workers...etc) has the potential to backfire and escalate the crisis, putting the Burmese population and foreign aid workers further at risk. The military junta could completely cut off relations and militarize the borders. As my colleague Danny points out the regime is paranoid. It is unclear what a truly paranoid regime would do.

Caroline is right. It is a thorny issue. The longer the world waits to take action, the more people could die. Yet, the international community's actions need to be sensitive so as not to exacerbate the crisis. In the end, the crisis has already and could further undermine the military junta's grip on power. This isn't a reason against any type of intervention, but a fact to consider as the U.S. and European leaders consider the options for action.