Africa on Edge

Roughly half of all countries emerging from deadly conflict will return to violence within five years of a peace agreement. This is a fact. It is grounded in the empirical research of Paul Collier, arguably the best economist focusing on the economic roots of African wars.

The donor community should pay attention to Collier's research in considering any cuts to development and humanitarian assistance. As the world economy recedes, countries in Africa are already facing greater unrest - due to flagging economies and weak social safety nets.

Yesterday, the head of the African Development Bank called an emerging meeting in London to discuss the economic crisis facing the African continent.

The message was simple - invest in Africa now, or pay for peacekeeping missions later when nations on the verge collapse into violence.

For instance, Liberia, a modern day success story, is at risk of falling back into violence, according to Liberian President Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf.

This news comes as the Congressional Budget Committees are preparing to mark up their budget resolution for fiscal year 2010. According to the Politico Senate Budget Chairman Kent Conrad is "pressing to cut $28 billion, or almost half, of the increased appropriations sought by President Barack Obama for domestic and foreign aid programs in the coming year."

Conrad's reason - Obama's budget will run up the U.S. deficit. While I am all for more fiscal responsibility, cutting the foreign aid budget has minimal value. President Obama's request for diplomacy and all international affairs programs is just $51 billion. Less than 1% of the federal budget is spent on foreign aid, and the stimulus of investing in lesser developed countries is exponentially greater than in rich countries. In short, we get a big bank for the buck in development aid.

The message to Conrad should be very simple - invest in Africa now or pay for increased peacekeeping operations to contain instability later.

Send a message to Conrad.

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